பத்திரிகை அறிக்கை
டீல்
டீல் மதிப்பு—
டீல் vs வணிகம்Order book = ₹950 Cr (~0.13x TTM revenue); FY27 guidance targets 22-23% revenue growth
சொந்த வருவாயுடன் ஒப்பிடும் அளவு0.13×
செயல்படுத்தும் காலம்0.75 ஆண்டு
அடிப்படை தரம்B
AI முன்கணிப்புகள்
வருவாய் உயர்வு (முதல் ஆண்டு / நிலையான)22.5% / 60.0%
EPS உயர்வு29.0%
அப்சைடு பேஸ் / புல் / பேர்35.0% / 75.0% / -20.0%
கால எல்லை12-36 மாதங்கள்
உண்மையான சந்தைப் பதிவு
நுழைவு — அடுத்த நாள் தொடக்கம்(12 ஆக. 2026)₹239.5
சமீபத்திய முடிவு விலை(12 நவ. 2026)₹209.88
தொடங்கியதிலிருந்து வருமானம்-12.4%
α vs Smallcap 250-9.8%
α vs சொந்தத் துறை-10.0% (ஸ்டீல் - லார்ஜ் இடைநிலை +0.2%, 47 முதிர்ந்த தேர்வுகளின் அடிப்படையில்)
நேர்மறைகள்
- Strong Q1 FY27 financial turnaround: Consolidated revenue up 28% YoY to ₹2,046 Cr and PAT up 77% YoY to ₹60 Cr.
- Achieved net zero-debt milestone with a net cash surplus of ₹154 Cr as of June 2026, lowering capital structure risk.
- Product mix improvement: Value-added API pipes reached 47% share in steel segment, driving EBITDA/tonne up 37% YoY to ₹4,006.
- Export momentum surging: API export volumes grew 377% YoY following initial entry into US markets.
- Clear medium-term capacity roadmap: Expanding steel capacity to 16 lakh tonnes in FY27 and 20 lakh tonnes by FY30.
அபாயங்கள்
- Raw material (HRC steel) price volatility can create inventory losses and margin volatility.
- Lighting & Consumer Durables segment faces intense pricing pressure from cheap imports and unorganized competition.
- Historical earnings instability: FY26 PAT declined 18% YoY prior to the Q1 FY27 operational rebound.
- Working capital expansion required to support aggressive export growth targets.
முழு AI சுருக்கம்
1. Ramp-Aware Impact & Financial Mathematics
- Current Run-Rate: TTM Revenue = ₹7,540 Cr, TTM PAT = ₹285.5 Cr, TTM EPS = ₹13.14.
- Q1 FY27 Performance: Revenue grew 28% YoY to ₹2,046 Cr; PAT expanded 77% YoY to ₹60 Cr. Steel pipe volume hit a Q1 record of 2.28 lakh tonnes (+21% YoY).
- Order Book & Capacity Expansion: Order book stands at ₹950 Cr (₹800 Cr steel, ₹150 Cr professional lighting), representing fast-turning short-cycle orders (~0.75 years execution period).
- Guidance & Year-1 Revenue Uplift: Management guides for FY27 value growth of 22-23% and volume growth of 25%. Applying a 22.5% uplift on FY26 revenue (₹7,540 Cr) yields projected FY27 Revenue of ~₹9,236 Cr.
- Margin Expansion & Net Profit Trajectory: EBITDA/tonne in steel improved 37% YoY to ₹4,006 due to a higher proportion of API pipes (47% mix). With zero net debt (net cash of ₹154 Cr) eliminating interest drag, net profit margin (NPM) is expected to normalize at ~4.0%.
- FY27 EPS Projection: Projected FY27 PAT = ₹9,236 Cr × 4.0% = ₹369.4 Cr. On 21.72 Cr shares, projected FY27 EPS = ₹17.00 (+29.4% over TTM EPS of ₹13.14).
2. தொழில்துறை மூலதனத் தீவிரம் & வளர்ச்சித் தன்மை
- Capital Intensity: MEDIUM. Brownfield/greenfield expansion in ERW/API pipes requires moderate capital expenditure relative to integrated steel plants.
- Execution Difficulty: MODERATE. Key barrier is API/international certifications and market entry in regions like the US (where export volume grew 377%).
- Expected Industry CAGR: ~9.5% structural growth for domestic steel pipes, driven by infrastructure, oil & gas transportation, and CGD networks.
3. Multibagger Quality & Fundamental Grade
- Fundamental Grade: B (Good balance sheet strength, 16% ROCE, zero net debt, but cyclical raw material exposure).
- Quality Gate: PASSED. Debt/Equity is effectively 0.00 (Net cash ₹154 Cr), promoter holding is stable at 63.0%, and ROCE is 16.0%.
- Operating Leverage: Expanding value-added API share provides margin resilience against underlying steel price swings.
4. மதிப்பீடு & சூழ்நிலைப் பகுப்பாய்வு
- Base Case (+35% Upside): FY27 EPS reaches ₹17.00. Applying a conservative 19.5x forward P/E (in line with peer median 20.6x) yields a target price of ₹331.5 (~35% upside over 12-18 months).
- Bull Case (+75% Upside): Capacity reaches 16L tonnes rapidly in FY27, export growth sustains, and FY28 EPS expands to ₹23.00. At 21x forward P/E, target price reaches ₹483 (~75% upside over 24-36 months).
- Bear Case (-20% Downside): Steel prices drop sharply, squeezing inventory margins; FY27 EPS remains stagnant at ₹13.50. At 14.5x trailing P/E, stock drops to ₹196 (-20% downside).
5. தீர்ப்பின் காரணம்
- Verdict: POSSIBLE (Score: 65/100).
- Rationale: Surya Roshni demonstrates a strong fundamental inflection marked by zero-net-debt status, 77% YoY PAT growth in Q1 FY27, and rapid expansion in high-margin export-oriented API pipes. While not a low-priced deep value, its PE of 18.7x offers reasonable headroom if execution against the 16L to 20L tonne capacity expansion roadmap continues.
2026-08-11 நிலவரப்படி பகுப்பாய்வு (விலை ₹245.17) · AI ஆய்வு, முதலீட்டு ஆலோசனை அல்ல.
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