பத்திரிகை அறிக்கை
டீல்
டீல் மதிப்பு₹2200 கோடி
டீல் vs வணிகம்GDV of ₹2,200 Cr is 13.6x TTM revenue of ₹162 Cr and 1.86x Net Worth of ₹1,180 Cr
சொந்த வருவாயுடன் ஒப்பிடும் அளவு13.60× — மிகப் பெரியது — 90 நாள் ஆய்வில் இவற்றில் 20% பங்குகள் 25%-க்கு மேல் சரிந்தன; வருவாயின் பாதிக்கும் குறைவான டீல்களில் இது 4% மட்டுமே.
செயல்படுத்தும் காலம்6.0 ஆண்டு
அடிப்படை தரம்C
AI முன்கணிப்புகள்
வருவாய் உயர்வு (முதல் ஆண்டு / நிலையான)0.0% / 226.0%
EPS உயர்வு115.0%
அப்சைடு பேஸ் / புல் / பேர்50.0% / 120.0% / -30.0%
கால எல்லை36-72 மாதங்கள்
உண்மையான சந்தைப் பதிவு
நுழைவு — அடுத்த நாள் தொடக்கம் (30 ஜூன் 2026)₹386.0
சமீபத்திய முடிவு விலை (12 நவ. 2026)₹356.35
தொடங்கியதிலிருந்து வருமானம்-7.7%
α vs Smallcap 250-8.7%
α vs சொந்தத் துறை-1.4% (நிதி & முதலீடுகள் இடைநிலை -7.3%, 65 முதிர்ந்த தேர்வுகளின் அடிப்படையில்)
நேர்மறைகள்
- Massive project scale with ₹2,200 Cr GDV, which is highly material compared to the company's ₹1,105 Cr market cap.
- Strategic location in Dadar East, a premium, high-demand multimodal transit and commercial hub in Mumbai.
- Strong asset backing with a consolidated net worth of ₹1,180 Cr and low debt-to-equity of 0.21.
- High promoter holding of 69.8%, indicating strong alignment of interest.
- Experienced management with a 40+ year operational track record in financial services and real estate.
அபாயங்கள்
- Long gestation period: Real estate revenue recognition will not begin until construction reaches the required threshold (likely FY28/FY29).
- Execution and regulatory risks inherent in Mumbai cluster redevelopment (tenant rehabilitation, municipal approvals).
- Declining current earnings trend, with FY26 PAT down 47% YoY due to transition phase and lumpy revenue.
- High geographic concentration with 100% of real estate projects located in Mumbai.
நிர்வாக எச்சரிக்கைகள்
- ₹155 Cr deposits are currently under auditor watch as per the FY26 results update on May 22, 2026.
முழு AI சுருக்கம்
1. ராம்ப்-அவேர் தாக்கக் கணக்கீடு
- Project Scale: The Dadar cluster redevelopment project has an estimated Gross Development Value (GDV) of ₹2,200 Cr. This is 13.6x Crest's TTM revenue of ₹162 Cr and 1.86x its Net Worth of ₹1,180 Cr.
- Execution Timeline: Real estate cluster redevelopments in Mumbai typically take 6 years from launch to final delivery. The launch is scheduled for Q2 FY27.
- Year-1 Revenue Uplift: 0%. Due to construction gestation and percentage-of-completion revenue recognition thresholds, no revenue is expected to be recognized in FY27.
- Steady-State Revenue: Assuming the ₹2,200 Cr GDV is recognized over 6 years (FY28-FY33), the average annual revenue contribution is ~₹366.7 Cr. This represents a 226% uplift over the current TTM revenue of ₹162 Cr.
- Steady-State PAT & EPS: Assuming a conservative net profit margin of 15% for premium Mumbai redevelopment (after accounting for rehabilitation and premium costs), the project could generate ~₹55 Cr in annual PAT. This is a 115% increase over the current TTM PAT of ₹48 Cr, raising steady-state EPS from ₹16.46 to ~₹35.3.
2. தொழில்துறை மூலதனத் தீவிரம் & எதிர்பார்க்கப்படும் CAGR
- Capital Intensity: HIGH. Mumbai real estate redevelopment requires substantial upfront capital for tenant rehabilitation, municipal premiums, and initial construction before customer advances start flowing.
- Industry CAGR: Estimated at 12% for premium Mumbai residential real estate, driven by infrastructure upgrades and consolidation towards organized developers.
3. மல்டிபேக்கர் தரம்
- Growth Trend: Currently weak. Quarterly revenue and PAT have declined YoY for four consecutive quarters (FY26 PAT down 47% YoY to ₹48 Cr). This indicates the company is in a transition phase.
- Balance Sheet: Strong. Net worth stands at ₹1,180 Cr (P/B of 0.9x) with low leverage (D/E of 0.21). Promoter holding is stable and high at 69.8%.
- ROCE/ROE: ROE is currently very low (~4%) due to the asset-heavy transition, but the massive pipeline of ₹7,920 Cr has the potential to structurally rerate future ROCE once monetization begins.
4. சூழ்நிலைகள் & மதிப்பீடு
- Base Case (50% Upside): Project launches in Q2 FY27, pre-sales are steady, and revenue recognition starts in FY29. Target price of ₹570 based on a conservative 16x P/E on blended future earnings.
- Bull Case (120% Upside): Fast-track approvals, robust pre-sales at premium pricing, and successful launch of other pipeline projects (Crest Golfshire, Crest Aspen). Target price of ₹836 based on 20x P/E.
- Bear Case (-30% Downside): Regulatory delays, liquidity squeeze, or escalation of the auditor watch on the ₹155 Cr deposits. Target price of ₹266.
5. தீர்ப்பின் காரணம்
- Crest Ventures is a asset-rich company trading at a discount to book value (0.9x P/B) with a massive real estate pipeline. However, the 'POSSIBLE' verdict is capped by the long gestation period of real estate cash flows, declining near-term earnings, and the governance red flag regarding ₹155 Cr deposits under auditor watch.
2026-06-29 நிலவரப்படி பகுப்பாய்வு (விலை ₹379.95) · AI ஆய்வு, முதலீட்டு ஆலோசனை அல்ல.
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