ஆர்டர்கள்/ஒப்பந்தங்கள் பெறுதல்
டீல்
டீல் மதிப்பு₹175 கோடி
டீல் vs வணிகம்investment of ₹175 Cr is 7.95x TTM revenue of ₹22 Cr
சொந்த வருவாயுடன் ஒப்பிடும் அளவு7.95× — மிகப் பெரியது — 90 நாள் ஆய்வில் இவற்றில் 20% பங்குகள் 25%-க்கு மேல் சரிந்தன; வருவாயின் பாதிக்கும் குறைவான டீல்களில் இது 4% மட்டுமே.
செயல்படுத்தும் காலம்1.5 ஆண்டு
அடிப்படை தரம்C
AI முன்கணிப்புகள்
வருவாய் உயர்வு (முதல் ஆண்டு / நிலையான)0.0% / 106.0%
EPS உயர்வு150.0%
அப்சைடு பேஸ் / புல் / பேர்50.0% / 120.0% / -30.0%
கால எல்லை18-24 மாதங்கள்
உண்மையான சந்தைப் பதிவு
நுழைவு — அடுத்த நாள் தொடக்கம் (24 டிச. 2025)₹23.0
சமீபத்திய முடிவு விலை (12 நவ. 2026)₹15.47
தொடங்கியதிலிருந்து வருமானம்-32.7%
α vs Smallcap 250-40.5%
α vs சொந்தத் துறை-29.7% (மின் உற்பத்தி மற்றும் விநியோகம் இடைநிலை -10.8%, 99 முதிர்ந்த தேர்வுகளின் அடிப்படையில்)
நேர்மறைகள்
- Massive capacity addition of 51.3 MW solar under PM KUSUM-C scheme with a 25-year PPA at ₹2.74/kWh.
- Eligible for Central Financial Assistance (CFA) subsidy of ₹1.05 Cr/MW, covering ~30% of the project cost.
- High promoter holding of 71.2% provides strong alignment of interest.
- Pivoting from low-margin legacy telecom/petro products to high-margin renewable energy and infrastructure.
அபாயங்கள்
- Severe execution and funding risk: project cost of ₹175 Cr is nearly 8x TTM revenue and requires significant debt/equity raising.
- Extremely low historical ROCE of 1.0% and poor core operating profitability (OPM of 6.3%).
- Earnings quality is highly volatile and dominated by non-operating/one-off gains (e.g., Mar 2025 PAT of ₹19.2 Cr on negative operating profit).
- Tariff of ₹2.74/kWh is relatively low, leaving thin margins if interest rates or O&M costs rise.
நிர்வாக எச்சரிக்கைகள்
- Highly volatile non-operating income/other income dominating net profits, raising earnings quality concerns.
முழு AI சுருக்கம்
1. ராம்ப்-அவேர் தாக்கக் கணக்கீடு
- Project Scale & Capex: The company has bagged 51.3 MW of solar projects under the PM KUSUM-C scheme with an estimated investment of ₹175 Cr. This is a developer project (IPP model), not an EPC order.
- Subsidy & Net Capex: The projects are eligible for a Central Financial Assistance (CFA) subsidy of ₹1.05 Cr/MW, totaling ₹53.87 Cr. The net project cost is therefore ₹121.13 Cr.
- Funding Assumptions: Assuming a standard 70:30 debt-to-equity ratio on the net project cost, Surana will need to raise ₹84.8 Cr in debt and contribute ₹36.3 Cr in equity. Given the current net worth of ₹155 Cr and TTM revenue of ₹22 Cr, raising this capital is a major hurdle.
- Year-1 Revenue Uplift: 0%. The execution timeline is 12 months from the LOA. No revenue will be recognized during the construction phase (CY2026).
- Steady-State Revenue: Assuming a 19% Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) for solar in Madhya Pradesh, annual generation will be ~85.38 million kWh (units). At a fixed tariff of ₹2.74/kWh, steady-state annual revenue is estimated at ₹23.4 Cr. This represents a 106% uplift over the TTM revenue of ₹22 Cr.
- Steady-State Profitability:
- EBITDA (at 85% margin): ₹19.9 Cr
- Depreciation (5% of net capex): ₹6.0 Cr
- Interest (10% on ₹84.8 Cr debt): ₹8.5 Cr
- PBT: ₹5.4 Cr
- PAT (at 25% tax): ₹4.05 Cr
- EPS Impact: Current TTM PAT of ₹22 Cr is highly distorted by a ₹19.2 Cr non-operating gain in Mar 2025. Normalized annual PAT is closer to ₹2.0 Cr. Adding ₹4.05 Cr of steady-state PAT from this project represents a ~150% to 200% uplift in normalized EPS (adding ~₹0.30 EPS on 13.55 Cr shares outstanding).
2. தொழில்துறை மூலதனத் தீவிரம் & எதிர்பார்க்கப்படும் CAGR
- Capital Intensity: HIGH. Solar IPP projects require massive upfront capital expenditure with long payback periods.
- Execution Difficulty: HIGH. Securing financial closure, land acquisition, and grid connectivity for 8 separate projects within 12 months is highly challenging for a micro-cap company.
- Industry CAGR: Estimated at 15% for Indian solar power generation, driven by aggressive government renewable energy targets.
3. மல்டிபேக்கர் தரம்
- Financial Profile: Historically poor. ROCE is extremely low at 1.0%, and core operating profit margins are weak (6.3% TTM OPM).
- Earnings Quality: Low. Net profits are consistently driven by non-operating items rather than core business operations.
- Balance Sheet: Currently healthy with low debt (₹9 Cr, D/E of 0.06), but leverage will surge significantly to fund this project.
- Promoter Alignment: High and stable promoter holding at 71.2% is a key positive.
4. மதிப்பீடு & சூழ்நிலைகள்
- Bull Case (120% Upside to ₹44): Successful execution within 15 months, financial closure achieved without equity dilution, and CUF of 21% achieved. Normalized EPS rises to ₹0.60; valued at 20x forward P/E.
- Base Case (50% Upside to ₹30): Execution takes 18-24 months, minor cost overruns, CUF of 19%. Normalized EPS reaches ₹0.45; valued at 15x forward P/E.
- Bear Case (-30% Downside to ₹14): Funding delays, execution stalled, high interest rates eat into margins, and legacy business continues to drag.
5. தீர்ப்பின் காரணம்
This is a classic high-risk, high-reward pivot. The project is transformative in scale (investment is 8x TTM revenue), but the execution and funding risks for a company with a 1.0% ROCE are immense. It qualifies as a 'POSSIBLE' multibagger candidate solely due to the structural shift in operating EBITDA if executed successfully, but warrants a highly skeptical approach.
2025-12-23 நிலவரப்படி பகுப்பாய்வு (விலை ₹20.05) · AI ஆய்வு, முதலீட்டு ஆலோசனை அல்ல.
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